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Thoughts on the Metaverse Summit

May 8th, 2006

So, I’ve already linked to a ton of other people’s commentary on the Metaverse Summit, but I haven’t given any of my own thoughts yet. If you’re used to thinking of me as the pie in the sky idealist, prepare for some grounding…!

Annotated versus virtual reality
There was a definite tug of war between two competing versions of what the metaverse means. One of them is the virtual world thing that most readers of this blog will be familiar with. The other is the annotated world augmented reality thing, which is the idea of pulling web data into the real world by overlaying it on our physical existence via heads-up specs and the like. In between is the “mirrorworld” which is a compromise, replicating the real world into virtual space and then annotating it there.

I have little doubt that all of these are dreams that are under development. But they don’t all seem to me to be the same thing at all, and I think they serve different purposes because of their usage patterns. Virtual worlds are primarily, and will continue to be primarily, for leisure time activities. Augmented reality serves a primarily practical purpose, and will continue to be best-suited for that. The killer apps for augmented reality lie in local economy applications: real estate, comparative shopping, navigation, interpersonal interaction annotation (heads-up tickler files over people’s heads, etc). The killer apps for virtual worlds have been, and will remain, chatting, hanging out with friends, and entertainment.

We’re seeing the first steps towards the annotated world stuff right now. World Heritage sites are being ddigitized, and services like Zillow are causing upheaval in their markets. These are all starting with mirrorworld applications, of course, but mirrorworld data will eventually migrate towards the two extremes. A digital Machu Picchu is much more compelling when it’s either serving as tour guide or hosting mutant dinosaurs you can kill; an inert 3d version would be one you visit once, think is cool, and then never visit again, much like most people fall in love with Google Earth (and its predecessor Keyhole) for about a week, then stop using it.

This divide stuck out for me perhaps because I am reading the latest Vernor Vinge book, Rainbows End, which is set here in San Diego, and features lots of augmented reality overlays on top of a landscape I know fairly well. Among the postulates is that kids will choose to run around in parks that are built with VR overlays for gaming — but there’s no mention of more traditional, screen-bound games. Which brings me to my next thought…

The poorly distributed future
One of my recurrent comments to other attendees was that many of the folks there needed to get out of Silicon Valley from time to time and go visit Cleveland, or Iowa, or rural Florida. You know, the real world. Some of the more enthusiastic folks were proposing brainports by 2016, and I felt obliged to stand up and point out that even if a fully functional and debugged brainport were announced by a stealth startup tomorrow, it would not have made it through the FDA by 2016.

Afterwards, chatting with Esther Dyson and Ethan Zuckerman, Ethan and I compared notes on the progress towards the “artificial pancreas” for diabetes management, something for which he has literally been waiting for 21 years despite the fact that “all the pieces are there.” (Minimed has recently deployed the first pre-alpha gen of something like this, and it’s a long way from being a real solution for all diabetes sufferers).

There’s a “last mile” problem in a lot of technologies, and metaverses are no exception. There’s this tendency to assume that just because a new technology comes into play, the old ones are replaced. But they aren’t — they are still in use even in the most trendsetting of communities. At the Summit, there were a lot of folks taking notes on paper right alongside those with laptops, and I think I was the sole tablet user. The only person I saw putting virtual worlds to real use during the summit was Robert Scoble, who seemed unable to pry himself away from Second Life. And lastly and most telling, there was an uncomfortable moment when some of the more pie-in-sky folks rhapsodized about how a virtual Darfur in Second Life could raise consciousness worldwide and Ethan slammed them for it. There’s a level of arrogance inherent in thinking that some geeks in Silicon Valley building a virtual Darfur can even begin to convey what actually happens in the Third World when many of those on the ground cannot grasp it.

Just as the screen-bound games are not going to go away (check out the resurgence in retro games!), Zillow isn’t going to kill off all the real estate agents either. There’s a large and aging population that won’t be gone by 2016 who will stick to the old methods; a large proportion of the younger folks will still prefer the handholding another person can offer; and the affluent will do the math and conclude that the cost of paying an agent may well be a better deal than the lost value of their hourly earnings if they did it themselves. Technologies accrete. Many of the loftier visions of social impact were centered around the incorrect notion that technologies replace, and that’s just not how the world works.

The metaverse is flat
The subtitle of the summit was “Pathways to the 3d web.” Some folks, like Daniel James, spent much time crossing out the word “3d” everywhere they saw it. As Randy Farmer noted in “3d is like blue.” It’s an attribute. What’s more, it’s a fairly useless attribute in many cases.

I have become persuaded that a huge part of why Korea boasts such a burgeoning MMO player population is because they didn’t go 3d as quickly as the West did. Yes, I blame EverQuest. 3d is pretty, significantly more immersive, and it’s more than twice as hard to adopt. The average person does not know how to navigate a virtual 3d space, the control complexity is significantly higher than any 2d environment demands, and most of our applications of virtual spaces haven’t actually needed 3d interaction anyway. The idea embodied in one of the OpenCroquet demos, of playing chess in a 2d window whilst in a 3d space, just underlines how superfluous the 3d space is to that particular application. It’s wonderful that you can collaboratively build 3d objects, but why do you want to?

Technology should follow needs. Some of the best indicators of coming metaverses are Habbo Hotel, Cyworld, mySpace, Amazon, and eBay. That’s where the volume is.

Similarly, there was a curious infatuation with space, closely tied to the love of 3d. Replicating New York down to every single apartment is neat and mostly useless. Space is an obstacle separating locations of interest. Empty space should exist only for the sake of it being filled with things of interest, or for the purpose of keeping locations of interest from overlapping.

We’ve known since the earliest virtual worlds that the topology of virtual spaces has more in common with subway maps than with Cartesian grid maps. Almost every world has involved forms of teleportation, and the “lumpy” distribution of population means that the world is seen from the point of view of major stops, not as a location-equivalent grid. For me, right now in the real world, San Francisco is closer than Big Bear, because I can hop a plane there and skip the boring bits. Skipping the boring bits is one of the big advantages of virtuality.

Ah, cycles
It seems like every ten years there’s a boomlet, and everyone who was doing virtual worlds the “old way” goes down, and a bunch of new mammal companies and organizations come up. Both the design assumptions and the business models tend to change at the same time. The last big boom was ten years ago, and marked by a serious swath of names that all started at just about the same time (though they didn’t all finish together):

  • Lineage

  • The Realm
  • Meridian 59
  • Kingdom of the Winds
  • Ultima Online
  • Everquest
  • Asheron’s Call
  • Dark Sun Online

What these brought to the table was a certain level of production values and a new, flat fee subscription model. They killed off a ten-year-old generation of games that had focused on time-based fees and didn’t have the same budgets. But those, in their turn, killed off an earlier generation, and so on.

Only around 3-4 significant virtual world releases happen in a given year in the whole world. Right now, we’re seeing that generational shift happen, and WoW isn’t the first of the new: it’s among the last of the old. The Summit asked us to forecast ten years out, and I think the safest prediction is that whatever we think is the next big thing will be dying off in ten years as a new disruptive approach is born.

That doesn’t minimize the importance of the disruptive stuff happening right now. The buzzwords that are making money circle the metaverse people once again: open platforms, networking multiple worlds, web integration, social networks, ancillary businesses, free play, microtransactions. A huge portion of this is going to be dotcom hype all over again. But some of it won’t be.

Because of that, as curmudgeony as this post might have seemed, I’m still very much an optimist and idealist about all this. I just think that tempering the dreams a little and focusing on the strengths of virtual worlds is what makes sense.

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