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Mischiefblog designs the next generation of MMOsMarch 29th, 2006 |
Here’s the full post, but my abbreviated excerpts are:
- As players mature, play multiple MMOs, and repeatedly experience very similar games, they can be expected to look for different game styles or even to look for worlds.
- Games-cum-worlds should begin to offer player creation and stronger community building tools.
- What will a next generation MMO look like? A lot like it did in 1997 when Ultima Online was released.
- It won’t be about new mechanics as much as about empowering players to have an impact on the world.
- assume that the game will be solid and that in itself, it may not be very revolutionary or evolutionary–those tend to have problems in the real world (witness DDO). Further, consider that the game should be able to be removed from the world and replaced without breaking the world.
- Above all, the game should not break community or friendship ties
- A next generation game will have rapid releases.
- Game customization will go from beyond the client to the server.
- A next generation MMO will be incredibly sticky.
- The fourth or fifth generation game is hosted by the player
It’s easy to argue with many of these; for example, will the new worlds truly be stickier, or are the days of long subscriber lifetimes gone forever? Will anything ever look like UO did in 1997? Do we really want it to?
And perhaps a key point: will players mature, or will the market grow? The two are sort of on opposite ends of a seesaw, in a way. Market growth generally comes from players not versed in the market, and they’re going to continue to want entry-level experiences.
A common pattern we saw in the text mud days was MUD burnout. A mudder would enter the community, and get badly hooked on a game, often after sampling a few. The one they would get hooked on would almost certainly be the one where they “clicked” with other people who were around — be they friends who brought them in, or new friends. Then they’d play obsessively for a while.
But usually, they would drop out — not of the game, of the entire hobby after a few years, usually two or so. Other games would pale. Either they’d move on to work on making or running a mud, or exit altogether. The percentage of diehards who played for years and years and years really was fairly small.
I’ve been predicting for a while that the same would happen with MMORPGs, but it doesn’t seem to have the same trajectory. Yes, we see the jaded types, but they seem to gamely keep trying new games. I think there’s a valuable market research question to be asked, which is “how many folks sampled these games and silently exited the genre long ago?”
And then, the question of what next generation brings them back might be easier to ask…

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[...] Yeah I like this too. I seem to be “sub-casual” or maybe one of the jaded many Raph mentioned today. Anyways, there’s a couple of thing I think worth noting: 1) time-in-game may not equal game worthiness or knowledge or skill, but it’s all there really is without a lot of more nuance or a lot of specific details that probably only relate to a game under study (e.g. unlocked Jedi with only 6 professions, 4 weeks work. Someone may deduce Jedi unlocking method then needs tightening up.). 2) time-in-game is all designers really work with I think. As such, it’s probably the cause of a lot of the crappier MMO’s we have out there and endless DIKU clones. People won’t innovate because the biggest metric they look at is time in-game and that drives their treadmill designs. Time in-game also is easiest to use with business planning for a subscription based business… so 3) time in-game drives business plans. Also used in marketing concepts like stickiness (cf. Raph today). So the people planning the business like time in-game as well. I don’t think time-in-game is the greatest choice but it’s a reasonable one to try and abstract behavior from. I also agree the Bartle models are way expired and need updating. [...]
Raph Knows Me
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Raph posed a few questions about my ideas about a next (and further) generation MMO: It’s easy to argue with many of these; for example, will the new worlds truly be stickier, or are the days of long subscriber lifetimes gone forever? Will anything ever look like UO did in
[...] Raph’s Website » Mischiefblog designs the next generation of MMOs Says: March 29th, 2006 at 6:56 pm [...]