Comments on: MMO long tails http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/ Raph Koster's personal website: MMOs, gaming, writing, art, music, books Sun, 12 Feb 2012 06:02:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: LFM - Top Mud Sites Forumhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-189752 LFM - Top Mud Sites Forum Thu, 21 Apr 2011 09:20:20 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-189752 [...] said, "big" is a relative term. Actually it's similar to Raph Koster's observations about MMO long tails. You disregard muds that have fewer than 30-50 players. You also play IRE muds, the smallest of [...]

[...] said, "big" is a relative term. Actually it's similar to Raph Koster's observations about MMO long tails. You disregard muds that have fewer than 30-50 players. You also play IRE muds, the smallest of [...]

]]> By: Cataclysm Burnout: Gotta love it! :) - Top Mud Sites Forumhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-186352 Cataclysm Burnout: Gotta love it! :) - Top Mud Sites Forum Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:02:54 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-186352 [...] [...]

[...] [...]

]]> By: Are MUDs still popular? - Top Mud Sites Forumhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-173712 Are MUDs still popular? - Top Mud Sites Forum Tue, 12 Oct 2010 15:34:54 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-173712 [...] of players will play a minority of muds. In fact Raph Koster wrote an interesting article about MMO long tails back in 2007, in which he discussed the same trend in MMORPGs. [...]

[...] of players will play a minority of muds. In fact Raph Koster wrote an interesting article about MMO long tails back in 2007, in which he discussed the same trend in MMORPGs. [...]

]]> By: Downloadable MUD list - Top Mud Sites Forumhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-167663 Downloadable MUD list - Top Mud Sites Forum Thu, 05 Aug 2010 20:24:20 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-167663 [...] but I'd be suprised if more than 100 had anyone on them. Not sure if you've read Raph Koster's MMO long tails article, but he made some interesting observations about playerbases sizes on muds and MMOs. If [...]

[...] but I'd be suprised if more than 100 had anyone on them. Not sure if you've read Raph Koster's MMO long tails article, but he made some interesting observations about playerbases sizes on muds and MMOs. If [...]

]]> By: DTF.RU - ММО как интернетhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-128735 DTF.RU - ММО как интернет Mon, 15 Oct 2007 08:43:01 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-128735

[...] онлайновых ролевых игр - в жанре фэнтези и сделаны по одному рецепту, за последние 20 лет не претерпевшему значительных изменений). Одна из конечных целей совместного проекта - превратить путешествия [...]

]]> By: How much longer does EQ2 as a game have?http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-123625 How much longer does EQ2 as a game have? Tue, 12 Jun 2007 13:14:09 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-123625 <!--%kramer-ref-pre%-->[...] on the topic with a lot of very current data and additional sources and links listed.6. http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/ - Another interesting blog which covers statistical data up to 2007 for a variety of [...]<!--%kramer-ref-post%-->

[...] on the topic with a lot of very current data and additional sources and links listed.6. http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/ - Another interesting blog which covers statistical data up to 2007 for a variety of [...]

]]> By: Douglas Galbihttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-123301 Douglas Galbi Tue, 05 Jun 2007 02:59:28 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-123301 The slope of the power law describing MMO industry structure can <a href="http://purplemotes.net/2006/08/20/lack-of-power-laws-and-other-popularity-problems/" rel="nofollow">change over time</a>. The slope of the power law describing given names has flattened a lot over the past two hundred years. There's some evidence that website traffic has flattened over the past decade. If you're trying to predict the market share of the top x games five or ten years from now, that may be a significant factor to consider. The slope of the power law describing MMO industry structure can change over time. The slope of the power law describing given names has flattened a lot over the past two hundred years. There’s some evidence that website traffic has flattened over the past decade. If you’re trying to predict the market share of the top x games five or ten years from now, that may be a significant factor to consider.

]]> By: TalkersPT :: View topic - A Cauda Longa dos Talkers Portugueseshttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-123241 TalkersPT :: View topic - A Cauda Longa dos Talkers Portugueses Sun, 03 Jun 2007 17:48:46 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-123241

[...] este artigo: http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/ e pelo menos este comentАrio: [...]

]]> By: Tesshttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-123093 Tess Thu, 31 May 2007 18:47:32 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-123093 I think that the curve is pretty natural, since MMOs are strong word-of-mouth products. Moreover, established players will go where their friends are. Thus, winning one player often means winning multiple. It's a system prone to landslides. In some ways, the results could be even more dramatic with MMOs than with some other sorts of choices, because we're not dealing with a closed system. Players are not only brought from other games -- but also from outside of the current MMO population. I think that the curve is pretty natural, since MMOs are strong word-of-mouth products. Moreover, established players will go where their friends are. Thus, winning one player often means winning multiple. It’s a system prone to landslides.

In some ways, the results could be even more dramatic with MMOs than with some other sorts of choices, because we’re not dealing with a closed system. Players are not only brought from other games — but also from outside of the current MMO population.

]]> By: Raphhttp://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/comment-page-1/#comment-123068 Raph Thu, 31 May 2007 03:19:04 +0000 http://www.raphkoster.com/2007/05/29/mmo-long-tails/#comment-123068 Well, Prokofy, something getting "bumpier" really means that the curve isn't as smooth. And you can see in the graphs I gave that in practice, the curves never are perfect. They are always a bit irregular. But the overall distribution is still highly approximate to a Pareto or Zipf distribution. There is no "impersonal force" -- rather, it's highly <em>personal</em> forces. "Preferential network attachment" can be translated as things like "going where my friends are" and "going where jobs are" and so on. People themselves, left to their own devices, sort into this sort of distribution curve. The slope of the curve will differ, but you can find it in the sizes of clumps of people at a party, the sizes of cities, the sales of books, the number of readers on a blog, the popularity of a given comment thread, and so on -- just like bell curves, Fibonacci sequences, and so on tend to show up in nature all over the place too. Basically, though, I am arguing that it's the small stuff in the niches that is most likely to pop up the unforeseen thing you are wondering about. The stuff at the head of the curve is very unlikely to be a risk-taking project. Well, Prokofy, something getting “bumpier” really means that the curve isn’t as smooth. And you can see in the graphs I gave that in practice, the curves never are perfect. They are always a bit irregular. But the overall distribution is still highly approximate to a Pareto or Zipf distribution.

There is no “impersonal force” — rather, it’s highly personal forces. “Preferential network attachment” can be translated as things like “going where my friends are” and “going where jobs are” and so on. People themselves, left to their own devices, sort into this sort of distribution curve. The slope of the curve will differ, but you can find it in the sizes of clumps of people at a party, the sizes of cities, the sales of books, the number of readers on a blog, the popularity of a given comment thread, and so on — just like bell curves, Fibonacci sequences, and so on tend to show up in nature all over the place too.

Basically, though, I am arguing that it’s the small stuff in the niches that is most likely to pop up the unforeseen thing you are wondering about. The stuff at the head of the curve is very unlikely to be a risk-taking project.

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