In some ways, the results could be even more dramatic with MMOs than with some other sorts of choices, because we’re not dealing with a closed system. Players are not only brought from other games — but also from outside of the current MMO population.

There is no “impersonal force” — rather, it’s highly personal forces. “Preferential network attachment” can be translated as things like “going where my friends are” and “going where jobs are” and so on. People themselves, left to their own devices, sort into this sort of distribution curve. The slope of the curve will differ, but you can find it in the sizes of clumps of people at a party, the sizes of cities, the sales of books, the number of readers on a blog, the popularity of a given comment thread, and so on — just like bell curves, Fibonacci sequences, and so on tend to show up in nature all over the place too.

Basically, though, I am arguing that it’s the small stuff in the niches that is most likely to pop up the unforeseen thing you are wondering about. The stuff at the head of the curve is very unlikely to be a risk-taking project.

For one, as long tail consumers become more aware, they might create more bumps that don’t rise really hugely and don’t smooth out. More social media might make more bumps in the long tail and those games with the 5 plays could each double to 5 or triple to 15 but never turn into WoWs — then what, they are then bumpier.

Templates might also suddenly become more diverse if some new technology or capacity suddenly appears to make it all easier, the way the Sims Online suddenly made it easier to make your own comic book with the family albums.

I guess I feel that while these theories are interesting, I can’t feel bound by them and I keep wondering what unforeseen thing might occur to interrupt the theory.

I do believe we have tons of passion for games and potential in terms of development down here. Feel free to check us out.

But I think that comparing the MMO long-tail phenomenon to the music long-tail phenomeon (for instance) is a bit of a farce.

This is partly because, as you yourself would admit, MMOs are more of a “service” than a “product.”

But there’s more to it than that. MMOs are a very unique form of entertainment because the value of the entertainment is (or should be) dependent on how many people are enjoying it.

If someone releases an album, it doesn’t matter if 5 people or 5 million people listen to it, it will always be the same album and always be just as good. But the quality of the same MMO is very different when it’s played by 5 people vs. 5 mil. (As someone who was only able to play WoW at 5am in the morning, believe me, that world is much less interesting when you’re the only conscious being in it.)

(Also note that the hypothetical album might have 5 fans who love it just fine; but if the MMO has only 5 players, it’s very unlikely that you’ll keep even those 5 players for long. Much as they love the world, it’s pointless without people in it.)

What does this mean? If you’re expecting your game(s) to end up on the long tail, make sure their game design is such that they’re fun even with a small number of people playing… every MMO needs a certain critical mass of players to become fun, but you want to tweak your design to make that number as low as possible. If your game will only have 5 players, make sure they can all find each other, and aren’t playing their own separate games on opposite sides of the world.